Sunday, July 11, 2010

Sunday at the Lakes and Flowers Hollywood

                                      LADY LUCK

Update: Yesterday was one of those days in which I backed into a pick three. I had a feeling the fifth race was wide open which it was and Living Word in which I picked to hit the board not in Saturday's Race but in his prior race.  I hit the all button then had E.Z. Gentlemen in the 6th and had Amazombie in the 7th. As a handicapper and gambler lady luck and insight goes a  long way in this sport. The cost of my two ticket pick three tickets in the 5th was  $52. The Pay off was $3,300- $52= ROI $3248. As the adage goes even a Blind Squirrel can find a nut or two. Bank started the day at $2519+ $3248 is $5767. The cost of the late pick four was $18-$5767 which is $5749.

Today there is a Carryover in the Pick Six of $500,000 and change.
The Pick Six starts in Race 4 and I think today I might just start at race 4. If I see any value in the first three races I will post my bets. Good Luck to all!

Race 1          Six Furlong Turf Claimer (40K)


                     1.Rob Bob and Dave  2.Doppio  3.Dream Now

Race 2           One Mile Sixteeth Maiden (40K)
A wide open race in my view! I like Camicory sitting off the pace and having a closing kick for his Texas- Bred win.


                      1. Camicory



Race 3           Six Furlong Starter Allowance
I like the Jerry Fanning horse that if the pace scenario is right with a hot contested lead then Maybe Yes is my pick.
                  
                                    1. Maybe Yes or Maybe No (Value Bet)
                        $20 Win and Place on Maybe Yes

Race 4          One Mile Turf Claimer (40K)
The pace scenario is the question for this race. Kris Silver and Hammurabi will likely be the rabbits. If this is the pace senario then Fire Break who is sharp fit and was claimed by Bill Morey will most likely be the one to fear down the stretch.  The caveat is that the horses Fire Break has beaten are not monsters and we have seen yesterday with Sir Dave and Devil on the roof. Two horse he has beaten in his last two races at Hollywood. So Beware using just one horse starting the first leg of the Pick Six. Knockout Artist second race after a short vacation facing a field at Golden Gate has speed numbers and the right style if the pace meltdown on the front end. Please do not take Knockout Artist lightly


                       1. Knockout Artist

                        $20 Place Knockout Artist

 
Race 5          Seven Furlong Claimer (12K)

I imagine the pace scenario to have Shantika's Dream with Celebration on the lead. Ten's Salty Sally closed from last to first and I was impress with this maiden low level win. She fits facing winners for the first time. Simply Put should love the distance and shortens up for this.  Warren's Ruby is dropping out of the allowance level and facing plodder's. This horse is bred for turf but acts like she has no heart down the lane on turf. The trainer switches surfaces and drops her. Blinker's come off  So Hottie and she fits this weak race! I like the horse who just won his maiden and seven furlongs is ideal for this tactical closer down the stretch. Simply Put is my Pick.


                    1. Simply Put  2. Ten's Salty Sally

Race 6          Six Furlong Maiden (32K)
Nostalgic Bid will be a short price. I like the fact that when they put on blinkers he acted like a runner plus the fact that he likes the cushion track. A single probably not! Peanut Butter Boy drops from 50k and ran a semi respectable 5th in his first race. Roos On The Loose,fits takes blinkers off and moreover has been gelded since his last race. It's Superman takes the drop from maiden special weight to this 32k level.  First time starter Ralphie' Ole' is interesting in which this trainer sends out very little but when he does he has them fit and ready. I like the June 5 furlong work and if he won we might have another carry over in the pick six. Maybe the Whales might buy this race.
                                  1. Nostalgic Bid  


Race 7           Six Furlong Allowance
I Like Scored  in this allowance sprint. The works suggest Scored is ready for a big performance this afternoon. Having said this he might need a race under his belt.  Imco Spirit will try to go gate to wire and if the pace meltdown Our Shorty will close down the stretch. But if Scored needs a race I like Majestic Afleet has been freshened up and has run with some quality horse like  Line of David and others.  I think he is live in  the best betting race of the day!  I like the long work outs. Majestic Afleet is my pick


                        1.Scored       2. Our Shorty


Race 8           Landaluce
 Belleofthebridle a front runner finish second in the Willard Proctor Stakes. She's on the rail and she faces a rabbit and a undefeated closer. The pace scenario is challenging today for the obvious favorite in today's Landaluce. The rabbit is Dawnie Macho who set at track record at Arlington June 12th and earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure the highest in the this field. And this leads me to the best closer I feel in the field,which is She'll Heir. She won her first race at Keeneland and entered the Cinderrella stakes and had a horrible trip: She was trapped on the rail,blocked into the lane. Bejarano muscled her way thru the traffic at the quarter pole and won. She earned a 60 Beyer Speed Fig for that race.

                   1. Dawnie Macho  2.Bellofthebride

Race 9           Five Half Furlong Maiden Special Weight
I like two first time starters and Woodman's luck in this dash on turf to end Sunday's card. First, Woodman's luck is one you have to fear down the lane. In his first race he finished fifth. He beat J. P. Gusto who was sixth in this productive key race. River' Chapel was the runner up and entered today in the Landaluce. As for the first timers I like Slammer Time with fast excellent drills in the morning. Swiss Yodler horse which is bred to win early out of the Jeff Blonde's barn. Please do not lightly dismiss this one as a live runner today.

                 1. Woodman's Luck   2. Tahoe Yodeler 3.Slammer Time

Pick Six
4th  5
5th  4,9
6th  4
7th  2,5
8th  1,2
9th 10, 5

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