Saturday, January 17, 2015

SATURDAY FULL ANALYSIS

                                       
          

                                                                         BANK

STARTED WI TH $100.00  I MADE FOUR BET........$20.00 ON THE DOUBLE DAILY IN THE FIRST AND SECOND RACE.  ROI RETURN THE FIRST TWO BETS......MADE A $20.00 DAILY DOUBLE IN THE SECOND AND THIRD RACE...........BET $20.00 TO PLACE AND SHOW IN THE FIFTH RACE WITH SOMETHING USUALL  ........SHE FINISHED THIRD AND PAYED $4.80.....ROI $8.00........LOST THE THREE DOLLARS IN THE LATE PICK 4...........MADE A THREE DOLLAR LATE PICK FOUR......HAD THE WINNER IN THE FIFTH, SIXTH,SEVENTH AND MISS WHEN COREY HAD THE WINNER IN THE LATE PICK 4...........

                                                        R.O.I. $ 2,386 PLUS $100.00

                                                                 EQUALS  $2,486.00


                                                                        
                                                                 

RACE 1

A dash to the wire is this opener five and half furlongs is this state restricted maiden 50 G race on the dirt........open to three year olds.


ANALYSIS:

Philip D' Amato trains the three year old gelding Dr. Suer sired by Cherokee Run out of the mare Malibu Moon. He is bred for speed and bred to win early......He drops in for a tag after running in a state restricted maiden special weight race.......In his debut with a big maiden claiming 50 G race he beat 10 horses after losing by a nose.......I watch the video and he did not change lead down at the wire......He was green.......He is not green now!

The pace looks to be Price Of Glory who exits a fast race where he was on the lead with fast splits.......22 then 44 seconds.......that was at seven furlongs........this race at five and a half he might be long gone and if the first time starters do not fire quick......he can take this field gate to wire.

Alfredo Marquez is a under-rater trains that has a small barn but know how to get his horses in spots where they can win. Hot Lightning sired by Storm Cat out of the mare Two Punch who breeds speed. Alfredo claimed him for 30 G's and I think the claim will turn out to be a profitable claim. His last start he was off slow and still almost won the race losing by one length. Tab that Rafael re-rides Hot Lightning my trip notes says that he had traffic problems with a bad start........He rushed up near the lead and was unlucky not to win as he was the betting favorite!

Both First time starter looks interesting with strong solid pedigree's. Mighty Pleasing sired by Artie Schiller out of the dame Pleasing who has six winners out of nine starts.......I expect Peter Eurton will have him cranked up after a ultra fast last drills......gate work he was 6 out of 104 horses who drilled that day.......then last drill was long and fast......very interesting and I expect he will outrun his line!   The rail horse Minister Prayer is the first time starter that I like....trained by Myadi who works them slow is kin to a stake winner........sired by Deputy Minister out of the dame  Songandaprayer has excellent pedigree that wins early........do not just dismiss as Song was bred by Tommy Town coupled that Myadi has been red hot at the meet this year..........

Clarity......look all four of my selections have a legitimate shot to win this dash!



              1.  Dr. Suer
              2.  Hot Lightning    (won)
              3. Price Of Glory

              Live long-shot play    Lambo Lux!  do not dismiss     (second)







RACE 2


A claiming sprint six and a half furlongs for 12 G's..............


ANALYSIS:

Six and a half furlongs to the wire a modest claiming race for fillies and mares..........looks like Faith Hill has won four straight........Glatt trains her......and my question is why this lower level race........If her wheels have not came off she is the one to beat as her morning line is 6 to 5.

Diodoro trains Peppy Bolly and the old adage goes bet on bets not horses as I have lost money on this underachiever...........She warrants respect in this untrustworthy race.

Michele Dollase I like her dad is Craig so it's in the blood as a trainer.  She trains the outside mare Tribal Peace..........fourth start after a lay-off........she has both speed and tactical position.......Her weight goes from 122 pounds to 112 pounds as the bug boy takes the call......... This is a long shot bet so take note.

Richard Baltas entries two horses Adellusion who is on the rail with Bejarano riding her.......and the one I like is Lust For Life who comes back fresh......Baltas is good with comebackers........She drops in class and with speed in this race she has the running style semi stalker who can flat out mow them down when the true racing begins...........near the wire!


                    1. Lust For Life     (BET TO PLACE)
                    2. Tribal Peace
                    3. Faith Proof

                    Long Shot Peppy Bolly

$20 Place on Lust For Life

R.O.I  $ 84.10


RACE 3

One mile and a eighth is this 16 G claiming affair for four year old and up!


ANALYSIS"

A race where it is a grab bag......non winner's of one.......Vavoom is the morning line favorite that I will try to beat with Jorge Gutierrez's entry Warren's Wesley sired by Storm Cat out of the mare Bertrando who can run all day long........bred for distance. Warren's Wesley has been sprinting of late........has a touch of back class. His speed figures fits with this group.........A sprint to route play!

Peter Miller has a maiden in this non winner of two going long.........Burning I do not care if he is still a maiden.......his pedigree coupled with his running style makes him a contender. He has speed and speed going long as Victor takes the call!



                1. Warren's Wesley  (BET TO PLACE)
                2. Burning
                3. Vavoom


                 Long Shot  Fonz




PICK THREE   4,6 WITH 4,6 WITH 1

COST $ 4.00




RACE 4

The lowest claiming race Sanra Anita has........a 8 G claimer for fillies and mares on the dirt track!


ANALYSIS"

There seem's to be speed to run at in this cheap claiming race for fillies and mares. The favorites look to be Silk In Silver and Ghost N Your Heart.........I have bet both of these in the past......the speed of the speed is Bejarano mare Silk In Silver......come catch her to win this race......I expect there will be other's pressing the pace with Rafeal.........

Gus Headley drops Chocolate Delight big time in class which is not a positive sign but I will get this one a excuse because she has been on the bench for more then a year but he has strung together 12 two weeks apart in 2014......last time Delight ran was in 2013........plenty of works to cranked him up. She has drilled seven furlong works in her.........love to see that....plenty of stamia and muscle should be tighter for her comeback. Her pedigree at this level is excellent........Storm Cat and Orientate..........Kayla Stra re-rides her and she has ridden the last two races in 2013.............


               1. Chocolate Delight      (BET TO PLACE)
               2. Silk In Silver
               3. Ghost N Your Heart

Pick Six    



RACE 5

Running down the tricky turf course a optional claiming affair for 62 G's.


ANALYSIS:

Second Level allowance foes running down the turf hill...........I like three in this race........tough wide open affair......but Diamond Bachelor route to sprint with speed...........Check out his morning drills...ultra fast and this trainer rarely trains them fast.....

Majestic Kitten trained by Hofman who is excellent with horses coming back after a lay off. Good pedigree after winning two straight then entered him in the Oceanside where he did the classic bounce.

Rafeal rides Holy Lute.....never been on the turf but is bred top to bottom to relish the surface.


               1. Diamond Bachelor
               2. Majestic Kitten
               3. Holy Lute'

              Long Shot   U.S. Citizen





RACE 6

Five and half dash to the wire state bred maiden claiming for 40 G's.......on the main track!


ANALYSIS:

A dash to the wire.....Korey Owens sends out the second timer Hot Estate.......debut was a mere prep........expect a winning effort as Martin Pedroza puts his leg over the maiden


              1. Hot Estate    (bet)
              2. Time To Get Ahead    
              3. Momma Tried

              Live play   North Lake Tahoe and Tiz All That


LATE PICK         7,8,9 WITH 3,4,8 WITH 6,10

COST $9.00




RACE 7       MEGAHERTZ STAKES

One turf mile for fillies and mares.........talented field with many contender's and very few pretender's!


ANALYSIS"

I like a long shot that I have bet before and won twice with.......She is one fast mare........Gary Stevens a money jockey rides her.......Bee Brave. I have always like Nashoba's Gold who is the class of the race......if a trainer can cranked her up because of the May lay-off......... Carla Gains is the trainer that can do it. Talamo is the only jockey that has been on her.......love those ultra fast long works Gains has drilled her in the morning......if she is fit then the race is over......!


              1. Bee Brave           (BET ACROSS THE BOARD)
              2. Nashoba's Gold
              3. Rusty Slipper

             Stone kicker late killer kick.........Winning Rhythm







RACE 8         LA CANADA STAKES GRADE 2

One mile and a sixteenth on the main track open for four year old fillies!


ANALYSIS:

Jo Jo Warriors is the speed of the speed......come catch her to win the La Canada! It loos like Lexis Lou will pounce on her when the true racing begins bear the wire!


              1. Lexis Lou
              2. Jo Jo Warrior
              3. Thatgirlinthatsong

               Live longshot Ramino's Wildcat

I expect Sam Sister will run tomorrow!

DAILY DOUBLE   LEXIS LOU WITH EASY TEN  $20.00



RACE 9

One mile state restricted maiden special weight turf race for four year old and up for fillies and mares!


ANALYSIS:

Two races does not make a career........Easy Ten a blueblood sire by Rock Hard Ten out of the  mare Bold Badgette.........bred to relish the turf........He has a valid excuse....his debut was a route race that is hard to win.........and was in the extreme outside post position number ten. His last race was against straight maiden special weight company........talented highly regarded race. He adds the blinker for the first time to focus and relax him in this race.


                1. Easy Ten                      (BET)
                2. It'sgettinghoyinhere
                3. Fort Cady

                  Long Shot The Custodian













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