Handicapper's Corner: PACE MAKES THE RACE IN THE BREEDER'S CUP CLASSIC

When people discuss this year's Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), most of the talk is about the 3-year-old domination and the battle for Horse of the Year among Shared Belief, California Chrome, Tonalist, and Bayern.

But there is another important key to the Nov. 1 main event at Santa Anita Park that should affect how the entire scenario plays out. The outcome most likely will be determined by what transpires on the front end, as we have two, possibly three, horses all trying to prove who is the fastest of the fast.

Two of the three, Bayern and Moreno, are major players who not only will dictate the pace, but either one would be extremely difficult to catch without the presence of the other. You can also throw in longshot Big Cazanova, another need-the-lead type who has already outrun Moreno early in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I).

But with 15 horses pre-entered, Big Cazanova was excluded from the field of 14 by the selection committee and will need a defection to get in. He is the only horse among the pre-entries who has not won or even placed in a stakes this year, having built his reputation in Peru.

All three of these horses need to be on the lead. All three of their trainers believe they have the speed to outrun the others. And all three are going to let their horse do what he does best, which is go hell bent for leather from the start. And for all you not familiar with that phrase, it is defined simply as "recklessly fast."

It's obvious something has to give, whether Big Cazanova is in the field or not. The possible scenarios, as is most of these cases, are pretty simple.

Bayern, Moreno, and Big Cazanova could find themselves on a suicide mission, battering each other into submission. One of them just proves too fast for the others and establishes a clear lead, which in all likelihood means he's going too fast for a mile-and-a-quarter race. Or Big Cazanova doesn't get in the race and one of the remaining two breaks poorly, leaving the other on an uncontested lead. That's not likely, as you can be sure whoever breaks poorly will be rushed up to challenge for the lead anyway. And the final scenario is that one of them actually is the fastest and the classiest, and can use his speed and class to break the spirit of anyone who dares to run with him.

Now you have to try to figure out who actually is the fastest of the three. Bayern's Brisnet speed figures of 124, 123, and 118 make him the fastest horse in the race. At least the most consistently fast. Moreno equaled Bayern's 124 top winning the Whitney Stakes (gr. I) and did run a 118 finishing third in the Charles Town Classic (gr. II), but his other five races were not nearly as fast as those two races.

So, all that proves is that on their best day each horse is capable of running eyeball-to-eyeball with the other. Big Cazanova has not exceeded a 109 this year, but, as mentioned, he did outrun Moreno in the Gold Cup when both broke from bad outside posts. Big Cazanova also blazed an opening half-mile in :44.93 en route to a one-mile allowance victory at Del Mar.

The trainers of the three horses all said they're not going to worry about the others. They acknowledge that their horse has one way of running, and they're not about to start tinkering with them with a $5 million purse on the line. Also, each believes their horse can outrun the others, which brings us back to the premise of Thoroughbred racing: My horse is faster than your horse.

Said Peter Miller, trainer of Big Cazanova: 'We're going to run our race. He's a free-running horse and we're going to let him run out of there and let the chips fall where they may. You got a speed horse, what else are you going to do? You can't worry about anyone else. He worked a mile in 1:39 and is doing great, so we'll see."

Moreno's trainer, Eric Guillot, said he's not afraid of Bayern. He believes he's "figured him out" and believes Bayern had no excuse in the Travers (gr. I); that if you hook him early he'll break under the pressure.

"I'm not gonna try to change anything, that's for sure," said Guillot, who has secured the services of Javier Castellano. The jockey change to one of the leading riders in the country is a major plus for Moreno.

As for Bayern being susceptible to early pace pressure, no one really knows that for sure. Though the Travers was a head-scratcher, and the colt did stop abruptly after leading for a half mile, it could very well have been a disdain for the track, which was a bit on the deep side. When things do go his way he takes no prisoners, leaving his opponents staggering far up the track.

Anyone who has followed racing over the years knows that races often do not play out the way they look on paper, and on many occasions where there appears to be a ton of speed, one horse manages to outrun the others. These horses look to be too fast and too one-dimensional to let that happen, but if one of them should get loose on the lead for whatever reason, look out.