Pacific Classic (gr. I)

Pacific Classic (gr. I)

If the two-time San Diego Handicap (gr. II) winner Catalina Cruiser were entered in the Pacific Classic, he would probably be favored to win. Certainly the three-time Grade 1 winner McKinzie would be an overwhelming choice to prevail in this 1 ¼-mile test of speed and stamina.

But since Catalina Cruiser and McKinzie are both skipping the Pacific Classic, why not think outside the box and support the 20-1 longshot #9 Mongoliam Groom instead?

It might sound crazy, but stick with me for a moment. Mongolian Groom has yet to win at the graded stakes level, but he's outrun expectations in a couple of major races this year. Back in April, he employed a grinding style to finish third in the 1 ¼-mile Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), beaten just 3 ¾ lengths by Gift Box and McKinzie. And last time out, he unleashed a menacing rally to fall just a length short of catching Catalina Cruiser in the San Diego Handicap here at Del Mar.

In between, Mongolian Groom suffered a few less memorable defeats, but he had some legitimate excuses. His grinding style was never going to excel in the Charles Town Classic (gr. II), conducted over the six-furlong bullring track at Charles Town, and he didn't seem to care for turf (nor 1 ¾ miles) while finishing sixth in the San Juan Capistrano Handicap (gr. III) at Santa Anita. In between, he finished fourth in a quick renewal of the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (gr. I), earning a respectable 96 Beyer even in defeat.

Speaking of Beyer speed figures, Mongoliam Groom doesn't rank as the fastest horse in the Pacific Classic field. But it's not like he's completely overmatched (he generally runs about 4-8 points slower than the favorites), and the great equalizer could be the 1 ¼-mile distance.

Essentially, Mongolian Groom is a grinder. He'll never beat you with a brilliant turn-of-foot, but he's relentless and has kept good company. Just as importantly, he's run well over the slow and tiring main track at Del Mar, an unfamiliar surface that could trip up his more heralded rivals from the East Coast.

For example, #5 Seeking the Soul might be favored off his recent victory in the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. II), but he's done his best running between a mile and 1 1/8 miles, so the longer distance of the Pacific Classic is a legitimate question mark. Plus, six of Seeking the Soul's seven wins have come in Kentucky, and he's never won a graded stakes race away from Churchill Downs.

#3 Pavel is a logical alternative to Seeking the Soul, and he did finish second behind champion Accelerate in the 2018 Pacific Classic, but his form this year has been a little less inspiring. Last time out, he flattened out sharply after making a big move in the 1 ¼-mile Suburban Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park, finishing third while giving the impression he might be better off running shorter these days. An infrequent winner with just three victories from 17 starts, Pavel is the type of horse you can count on to crack the superfecta (he's done so 13 times), but for win purposes he's tougher to endorse.

So why not take a shot with Mongoliam Groom at a big price? This isn't the toughest Pacific Classic field in recent memory; the last six winners have been Accelerate, Collected, California Chrome, Beholder, Shared Belief, and Game On Dude, but at this point it doesn't appear as though a star of this caliber is running in the 2019 Pacific Classic. And in the absence of Catalina Cruiser and McKinzie, why not support their gallant pursuer Mongolian Groom, who will offer much more enticing odds in the wagering?