BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

ARROGATE (B. Baffert)
GUN RUNNER (S. Asmussen)
COLLECTED (B. Baffert)
WEST COAST (B. Baffert)
KEEN ICE (T. Pletcher)
GUNNEVERA (A. Sano)
IRAP (D. O’Neill)
TAPWRIT (T. Pletcher)
THE LATEST – Defending BC Classic winner Arrogate lost for the second straight time when upset by stable mate Collected in the $1 million Pacific Classic Aug. 19, but the good news is that he performed much closer to his old self when going down by a half-length in a race that was legitimately fast and highly-rated. The previous month, the world’s number one rated horse had run as poorly as a 1/9 favorite can when beaten more than 15 lengths in San Diego H. -G2. Though trainer Bob Baffert refuses to use it as an excuse, there are those – jockey Mike Smith among them – who believe that Arrogate simply doesn’t act over the deep Del Mar strip. Perhaps, as others have speculated, the colt isn’t quite the same since returning from Dubai. In any case, present plans call for Arrogate to be trained up to the BC Classic, a similar strategy that was employed successfully last year after the son of Unbridled’s Song ran the fastest mile and one quarter in Saratoga history when winning the Travers S. -G1. But last year’s Breeders’ Cup was staged at Santa Anita, a track where Arrogate always has trained and raced in spectacular fashion. This year he’s going to have to return to Del Mar to defend his Classic title.

Gun Runner was superb in a 5 ¼ romp in the Whitney S. -G1 at Saratoga Aug. 5, over the rejuvenated Keen Ice (who stumbled badly at the start and did well to finish second) and then turned in an even a better performance speed figure-wise when crushing an outclassed field in the Woodward S. -G1 over that same course and distance. . The Classic will be his first start at Del Mar (some like it, some don’t) and 10 furlongs certainly is stretching his limit, though he did finish second to Arrogate at the BC Classic’s distance in the Dubai World Cup-G1.   Like Arrogate, Gun Runner is expected to train up to the BC Classic.

Collected had been our top-ranked colt in the BC Dirt Mile division but now will be pointed to –and apparently trained up to – the Classic.   Undefeated in seven starts over a fast dirt track, the son of City Zip does his best running on the lead and parlayed a pristine trip to his Pacific Classic victory. It is difficult to imagine things will go so softly for him in the BC Classic.

With his win in the Travers S. -G1, West Coast provides Baffert with (at least) one other strong BC Classic probable starter. Rapidly developing with each outing and showing the versatility to win from far back or as the pacesetter, the son of Flatter suddenly has thrown his hat into the ring as a legitimate candidate for Eclipse Award honors in the 3-year-old division. He is expected to run next in the Pennsylvania Derby-G2 at Parx Sept. 23.

Cupid might be better suited to the BC Dirt Mile, so that’s where we’re placing him, though as of this writing we’ll concede it’s more probable that the son of Tapit will provide Baffert with yet another bullet to fire in this event.

Missing from the latest rankings are Mor Spirit and Shaman’s Ghost. The former – the winner of three consecutive stakes, including the Metropolitan H. -G1 in late May – has been dull in recent workouts at Del Mar. but is worth watching to see if he’ll perk up at Santa Anita. ‘Ghost missed the Woodward due to a throat issue that required surgery.   Gunnevera, Irap, and Tapwrit, two-three-four finishers in the Travers, round out the current BC Classic rankings.



BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

HIGHLAND REEL (A. O’Brien)
ULYSSES (M. Stoute)
OSCAR PERFORMANCE (B. Lynch)
CRACKSMAN (J. Gosden)
SADLER’S JOY (T. Albertrani)
BEACH PATROL (C. Brown)
HUNT (P. D’Amato)
MONEY MULTIPLIER (C. Brown)
THE LATEST – This year’s American contingent isn’t very impressive and has taken turns beating one another. We’ve listed a few European-based runners that are BC-eligible and have the proper form to be highly competitive, but at this stage it’s impossible to know which and how many will actually come. Defending champion Highland Reel won back-to-back Group-1s in England this year before failing to land a blow when fourth over unsuitable soft ground in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. -G1 at Ascot in late July. There’s no reason to believe the world traveler won’t be returning to defend his crown.

Ulysses was second (beaten 4 ½ lengths) in that same race behind super filly Enable and then returned to win the Juddmonte International-G1 at York. He’s a “definite” for this race and clearly is a better type now than last year, when he finished a very respectable fourth at Santa Anita.

On pure speculation we’ve tossed in Cracksman, winner of the Great Voltigeur S. -G2 at York Aug. 23 for trainer John Gosden. The 3-year-old son of Frankel boasts a career record of three wins in five starts in top class company. Earlier this year he finished second in the Irish Derby-G1 and before that was third in the Epsom Derby-G1. At this time he’s under consideration for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1, a race in which Gosden will be saddling the race’s likely favorite, Enable.



BREEDERS’ CUP MILE (TURF)

RIBCHESTER (R. Fahey)
LE BRIVIDO (A. Fabre)
WORLD APPROVAL (M. Casse)
HEART TO HEART (B Lynch)
BLACKJACK CAT(M. Glatt)
TIME TEST (W. Mott)
BAL A BALI (R. Mandella)
BRICKS AND MORTAR (C. Brown)
THE LATEST – This is another race in which the Europeans – with so many legitimate candidates – have an enormous edge both in numbers and in talent but at this stage it is unknown how many are being pointed for the race. Ribchester may have been inconvenienced by soft ground when narrowly beaten in the Sussex S. -G1 at Goodwood but remains the top-rated miler in England and will be the one to beat if he makes the trip.  However, the latest buzz is that the Godolphin colt will stay home and compete in the Queen Elizabeth II S. -G1 on Champions Day at Ascot Oct. 21, though it’s possible he could be wheeled back in two weeks for the BC Mile.

The 3-year-old French colt Le Brivido, winner of three of four career starts including the 20-runner Jersey S. -G3 at Royal Ascot in his most recent outing, was said by trainer Andre Fabre to have the BC Mile as his year-end goal. The son of Siyouni also holds an entry in the Queen Elizabeth II S. -G1 on Champions Day at Ascot two weeks prior to the Breeders’ Cup.

Regarding the North American-based runners, Heart to Heart received his coveted “lone f” trip in the Bernard Baruch H. -G2 at Saratoga in early September and returned to winning form while World Approval was visually quite pleasing in capturing the Fourstardave S. -G1 at Saratoga Aug. 12. Blackjackcat had been considered nothing more than a nice allowance horse until winning his last three, including the Del Mar Mile H. -G2 over the same course and distance of the BC Turf Mile and may be sent to Keeneland for the Shadwell Turf Mile -G1 for his NC Mile final prep.  Bal a Bali, winner of the Shoemaker Mile-G1 in the spring at Santa Anita, followed up that effort by finishing last of six behind Blackjackcat in the Del Mar Mile. It’s been that kind of division in North America.



BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

ACCELERATE (J. Sadler)
CUPID (B. Baffert)
SHARP AZTECA (J. Navarro)
BATTLE OF MIDWAY (J. Hollendorfer)
PRACTICAL JOKE (C. Brown)
DIVINING ROD (A. Delacour)
GIANT EXPECTATIONS (P. Eurton)
PAVEL (D. O’Neill)
THE LATEST – With Collected now being pointed to the BC Classic, the top spot in the BC Dirt Mile belongs to the John Sadler-trained Accelerate, a highly-respectable third in the 10F Pacific Classic over a trip that was out of his range. He’s much more effective at a middle distance and loves the Del Mar main track.

The Baffert-trained Cupid, who had trained superbly at Del Mar after getting sick following his win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June 3, was all out to win the listed Harry F. Brubaker Stakes over a mile on the Del Mar main track Aug. 23, earning a 99 Beyer speed figure, well below the 108 he was assigned when capturing the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June. With all of the firepower he already has in the BC Classic, and with the recent retirement of Danzing Candy, Baffert may eventually re-route Cupid to this race, but that’s just our speculation.

Battle of Midway, third in this year’s Kentucky Derby, added blinkers, got the patient ride he needs, and won the listed Shared Belief S. over the same track and distance of the BC Dirt Mile on Aug. 26 with a career top speed figure.   Another 3-year-old that may be a factor in this race is the lightly-raced but ultra-talented Pavel, winner of the Smarty Jones S. -G3 at Parx Sept. 5. His next stop will be the Pennsylvania Derby over that same track Sept. 23, and a win in that race might convince his connections to try the BC Classic rather than this more suitable race. Several other possibilities for the BC Mile may be one-turn specialists. Giant Expectations won the win-and-you’re-in Pat O’Brien S. -G over seven furlongs at Del Mar Aug. 26 but we suspect – like Practical Joke, Awesome Slew, American Anthem, Tom’s Ready, and Seymoudini – that he’s more much effective around one turn.



BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

DREFONG (B. Baffert)
ROY H (P. Miller)
MIND YOUR BISCUITS (C. Summers)
RANSOM THE MOON (P. D’Amato)
IMPERIAL HINT (L. Carbajal, Jr.)
EL DEAL (J. Navarro)
WHITMORE (R. Moquett)
AWESOME SLEW (M. Casse)
THE LATEST – After trying to jump the fence, dumping his rider and then as a loose horse causing havoc during the running of the Bing Crosby S. -G1 in his 2017 debut, defending BC Sprint champion Drefong did everything right and obliterated his competition in the Forego S. -G1 at Saratoga to regain leadership in the sprint division. He earned a career top speed figure in the process and most likely will be trained up to the BC Sprint, just as he was last year after winning the King’s Bishop S. -G1.

Roy H managed to finish third in the Bing Crosby despite being badly impeded by Drefong, and remains a strong contender. He’s a superior turf performer, as well, but this is the race that trainer Peter Miller is pointing for. On Sept. 3 the son of More Than Ready went an easy five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 seconds while ticking over for what we assume will be his next start in the $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship-G3 Oct. 7.

Mind Your Biscuits, after a string of superb performances both at home and in Dubai, ran well below form when unplaced in the Forego. His workouts leading up to that race had been below his usual standard. Trainer Chad Summers has the option of training son of Posse up to the race and giving him another run, perhaps in the Vosburgh S. -G1 Sept. 30 at Belmont Park.

Imperial Hunt crushed three outclassed by more than six lengths under wraps in the listed LeVine Memorial Stakes at Parx on Labor Day, missing the track record by four one-hundredths of a second.



BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

LADY AURELIA (W. Ward)
MARSHA (M. Prescott)
GREEN MASK (B. Cox)
PURE SENSATION (C. Clement)
BATTAASH (C. Hills)
LONG ON VALUE (W. Mott)
PAY ANY PRICE (R. Zaidie)
MONGOLIAN SATURDAY (E. Ganbat)
THE LATEST – This year’s BC Turf Sprint will be run at five furlongs and that – coupled with Del Mar’s short run in from the top of the lane to the wire – means deep closing turf sprinters will be at an extreme disadvantage. At this shortened trip Lady Aurelia has a considerable edge; she’s quick enough to make the lead but is quite comfortable in a stalk-and-pounce role should the situation dictate. She lost little in defeat when nosed out by Marsha in the Nunthorpe S. -G1 at York in late August over ground that might have been a bit stickier than she prefers.

Marsha is hardly a one hit wonder, as she also won the Prix de l’Abbaye-G1 on Arc day last year at Chantilly. She’ll most likely be pointed to that race again, but while she’s Breeders’ Cup eligible there is no talk yet about a subsequent trip to the States. However, the 3-year-old gelding Battaash, from the Charles Hills barn, is said to be under strong consideration; he was fourth behind Marsha in the Nunthorpe but prior that had won three straight including the King George S.-G2 at Goodwood.

Disco Partner isn’t BC eligible and because he’s a gelding isn’t likely to be supplemented but the New York-based Green Mask, a winner of three of his last four and a strong runner-up to Disco Partner in the Jaipur S. -G3 on Belmont Stakes day, just missed the Saratoga course record for 5 ½ furlongs in his scintillating victory in the Troy Handicap.

Pure Sensation returned to winning form with a sharp score in the Monster Turf S. -G3 at Parx on Labor Day, defeating a good field that included Mongolian Saturday and Holding Gold.



BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

STELLAR WIND (J. Sadler)
FOREVER UNBRIDLED (D. Stewart)
ABEL TASMAN (B. Baffert)
VALE DORI-AR (B. Baffert)
ELATE (W. Mott)
PAID UP SUBSCRIBER (C. Brown)
HIGHWAY STAR (R. Ubillo)
TERRA PROMESSA (S. Asmussen)
THE LATEST –With the retirement of division leader Songbird, Stellar Wind firmly occupies the top spot. Better at age five than she’s ever been, she’s 3-for-3 this year, all in Grade 1’s. Songbird’s conqueror in the Personal Ensign S. -G1, Forever Unbridled, is a small step back at number two and that’s only due to the home court advantage Stellar Wind will enjoy at Del Mar. Both are in exceptional form.

Abel Tasman seems to be improving with every start and her victory in the Mother Goose S. -G2 was flattered when runner-up Elate came back to dominate the Alabama S. -G1. The latter might take on older fillies and mares in the Beldame S. -G1 at Belmont Park or the Spinster S. -G1 – both on October 8 – for her final Breeders’ Cup prep.

Paid Up Subscriber won the 3-runner Shuvee S. -G3 in late July by more than 32 lengths from Terra Promessa but hasn’t had a race or a recorded workout since.



BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

UNIQUE BELLA (J. Hollendorfer)
SKYE DIAMONDS (W. Spawr)
BY THE MOON (M. Nevin)
AMERICAN GAL (S. Callaghan)
PAULASSILVERLINING (C. Brown)
CARINA MIA (C. Brown)
FINEST CITY (I. Kruljac)
CONSTELLATION (J. Hollendorfer)
THE LATEST – Unique Bella recorded her third workout on the comeback trail when breezing a half in 47 1/5 at Del Mar Sept. 3. There’s plenty of time for her to be ready for the BC Filly & Mare Sprint with a prep race before that, possibly the L. A. Woman S. -G3 at Santa Anita October 8. One thing to keep and eye on: with stable mate Songbird now retired, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer could even re-route her to the BC Distaff.

Skye Diamonds has become the best female sprinter in the West not named Unique Bella and is undefeated in two starts at Del Mar. After another thoroughly commendable victory in the Rancho Bernardo S.-G2, the former claimer will train up to the race.

By the Moon has quietly won three of her last four, including the Ballerina S.-G1 at Saratoga Aug. 26. She’s as genuine and consistent as they come but, like Skye Diamonds, has never earned a triple-digit Beyer number in 19 career starts.

Paulassilverlining had won four straight stakes races (including back-to-back Grade-1s) after finishing third in the ’16 Filly & Mare Sprint, but she was well below form when winding up fifth in the Ballerina in an effort that is best ignored. In that race she broke sharply but was strangely guzzled back off a crawling early pace, got behind horses, got mad, and failed to fire. The interior fractions of that race – remember, this was a Grade-1 sprint – were 24.05 and 47.81.

Defending champion Finest City isn’t quite back to 2016 form just yet. She had her first workout in a couple of months when going three furlongs in 34 3/5 seconds August 31. She will be sold at auction in November.



BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

LADY ELI (C. Brown)
WINTER (A. O’Brien)
ROLY POLY (A. O’Brien)
GRAND JETE (C. Brown)
DACITA (C. Brown)
ALICE SPRINGS (A. O’Brien)
QUIDURA (G. Motion)
CAMBODIA (T. Proctor)
THE LATEST – Trainer Chad Brown could saddle half the field and Aidan O’Brien the other half if they were to enter all of their legitimate contenders. Lady Eli has the style to suit the tight Del Mar turf course, where the short stretch requires handiness and instant acceleration. In her victory in the Ballston Spa-G2 at Saratoga Aug. 26, the remarkable daughter of Divine Park did just that.

However, a strong case can be made that the Aidan O’Brien-trained  Winter, with four consecutive Group-1 victories, has the better 2017 resume, and Roly Poly, who defeated Lady Aurelia last year, isn’t too far behind. As of this writing, both are intended starters in the Matron S. -G1 at Leopardstown Sept. 9. Yet another O’Brien trained mare, Alice Springs, off the track since April when finishing third in the Gladness S.-G3 but reportedly is doing well holds entries in several European group races in September.

Dacita earned her way in with a victory in the Beverly D. S.-G1 in Chicago Aug. 12 but if truth were told Grand Jete, who dead-heated for second, encountered extreme traffic and should have won.



BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

BOLT D’ORO (M. Ruis)
ZATTER (B. Baffert)
SPORTING CHANCE (D. W. Lukas)
HONORABLE TREASURE (K. McPeek)
FREE DROP BILLY (D. Romans)
COPPER BULLET (S. Asmussen)
DAK ATTACK (D. Romans)
GIVEMEAMINIT (D. Stewart)
THE LATEST – Since none of these have routed on dirt yet, this list could change dramatically when the longer prep races are staged in the coming weeks. Bolt d’Oro is unbeaten in two starts, won the 7F Del Mar Futurity-G1 impressively and has the pedigree that suggests added distance won’t hurt one bit. In the Futurity, the son of Medaglia d’Oro wore down the stubborn Zatter close home (both well clear of the rest) when winning with a legitimate speed figure. Bolt d’Oro, who wore blinkers in his first two starts but may race without the hood when he returns in the FrontRunner S.-G1 at Santa Anita Sept. 30.

Honorable Treasure earned a sensational 90 Beyer speed figure in winning over seven furlongs in an off-the-turf Saratoga maiden that originally was carded at a mile and one-sixteenth. He’s a slam dunk to improve two-turning.

Sporting Chance, Free Drop Willy and the maiden Givemeaminit finished one-two-three in the Hopeful S.-G1 and, according to their bloodlines, should relish added ground.

Two other accomplished juveniles with route pedigrees are Copper Bullet, impressive winning the Saratoga Special, and Dak Attack, a come-from-behind stakes winner at Ellis Park.



BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

MOONSHINE MEMORIES (S. Callaghan)
PIEDI BIANCHI (D. O’Neill)
ALLURING STAR (B. Baffert)
SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (C. Brown)
AMY’S CHALLENGE (M. Robertson)
LADY IVANKA (R. Rodriguez)
MAYA MALIBU (G. Motion)
GAS STATION SUSHI (R. Baltas)
THE LATEST – Results of two valuable Grade-1 races for juvenile fillies on Labor Day weekend suggest the strength in this division lies in the West. Unbeaten Moonshine Memories returned off short rest following her impressive debut maiden win to take the Del Mar Debutante -G1 over seven furlongs in smart fashion with a Beyer speed figure (82) 16 points better than what Lady Ivanka was assigned in her perfect-trip tally in the Spinaway S. -G1 at Saratoga.   As a daughter of Malibu Moon, ‘Memories should be able to stay a middle distance and will have the home court advantage at Del Mar.   The Debutante runner-up Piedi Bianchi was more than five clear of the others while producing a significant forward move over her maiden win earlier in the meeting and is another that shouldn’t be inconvenienced by two-turns.   Alluring Star , a daughter of Exchange Rate, was an eye-catching debut winner at Del Mar and seems likely to return in the Chandelier S.-G1 at Santa Anita Sept. 30 for Baffert. Separationofpowers got stuck inside in a speed duel in the Spinaway and paid the price when weakening to wind up third; she’ll be much better with patient handling and we still believe the daughter of Candy Ride is a high quality prospect.