Breeders' Cup: Year of Sophomore in horse racing by Ed Zierlski

If the Pennsylvania Derby didn’t show it on Saturday, then the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Saturday should drive the message home to all of horse racing.

Right now, the 3-year-olds are causing all the buzz in horse racing. The older horses are dropping off, retiring to stud or just to pasture. Game On Dude, Palace Malice, Mucho Macho Man, all retired. What's left is a dynamite class of 3-year-old runners who are setting track records and blazing their way to a monstrous showdown in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Yes, and it happened suddenly in the last few weeks, but the 3-year-old crop of horses, which always seems to be maligned by media early, has turned the table on their elders this year. Don’t be surprised if the top three finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Classic are 3-year-olds, is what I’m saying here. That race could decide two divisional championships – the 3-year-old and Horse of the Year if Wise Dan slips in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. But if Wise Dan wins and say Shared Belief, California Chrome or Bayern win the Classic, who is Horse of the Year then? Tough call.

Tell me, who is going to beat the top three in that division right now? Owner Kaleem Shah and trainer Bob Baffert’s Bayern showed Saturday that on any given day the 3-year-old son of Oflee Wild can be as good as any horse in the country. He broke a track record for 1 1/8 miles that had stood for nearly 40 years at Parx, the track formerly known as Philadelphia Park and Keystone before that.

Bayern’s time of one minute, 46.96 seconds broke Selari Spirit’s mark of 1 minute, 47 seconds set Nov. 30, 1974. Selari Spirit, by the way, was a 4-year-old.

Tapiture, trained by Steve Asmussen, was coming off a win by a nose over John Sadler’s Candy Boy in the West Virginia Derby. He finished 5¾ lengths behind Bayern, and, this time, a head in front of Candy Boy. California Chrome? On this day he was 11½ lengths behind the winner. After being so brilliant for so long, California Chrome now has to prove he still has something left in his tank after that grueling Triple Crown run.

But does anyone doubt that with nearly six weeks to train for the Breeders’ Cup that Chrome won’t be a different horse on Nov. 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic? Or that Shared Belief, Bayern, Tapiture and Candy Boy won’t be rolling in that race, too? Toss in other possible 3-year-olds such as Wicked Strong and Tonalist, and the Classic field could be loaded with sophomores this year.

What older horse is going to stay with them? The better elders are gone. Palace Malice, Mucho Macho Man, Game On Dude, all retired.

The remaining older shooters include some quality horses, but can they hang with the young’uns at 1¼ miles on the new Santa Anita dirt?

There’s Sean McCarthy’s Majestic Harbor. At 6 years old, he was in his best form when he won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. But he struggled on the Polytrack in the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar, never firing and finishing sixth. Let’s see how he rebounds back on the dirt against Shared Belief in the Awesome Again.

There’s also Will Take Charge, now 4 years old and still capable. This is a colt who ran in all three Triple Crown races in 2013, finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby, seventh in the Preakness and 10th in the Belmont Stakes. He was a game second to Mucho Macho Man in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. I remember D. Wayne Lukas reminding people during the 2013 Kentucky Derby that Will Take Charge might be better than Oxbow, who eventually won the Preakness Stakes. But Will Take Charge hasn’t run since finishing third in the Whitney Stakes on Aug. 2, and he hasn’t won since taking the Oaklawn Handicap on April 12. He’s not nominated for the Awesome Again.

It’s not that there aren’t any quality older horses, but it’s a combination of them being merely good and the 3-year-olds appearing to be very good to great.

The other top older horses include Eric Giullot’s Moreno (winner of the Whitney at Saratoga on Aug. 2, second in Woodward Aug. 30); Itsmyluckyday, trained by Edward Plesa, Jr., and winner of the Woodward ahead of Moreno; Imperative, trained by George Papaprodormou and third in the Pacific Classic and also won the Charles Town Classic, beating Game On Dude back in April; mysterious Masochistic, trained by A.C. Avila, has yet to win a stakes, but with Avila, you never know what he’s brewing.

We’ll know a lot more about how the Breeders’ Cup Classic will look after the last prep races next week. But it says here it’s going to be the Year of the Sophomores in the Classic at Santa Anita.

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