Thursday, May 17, 2012

THURSDAY




                               BETFAIR THURSDAY

                                    BANK $100.00





       PLEASE READ ANALYSIS BEFORE BETTING


RACE 1

A four and a half furlong sprint for two year olds at the claiming price of 40 G´s. Gambulina has win early pedigree and gets the inside post...... looks like a runners to me. Kiptiddy Do drops in class..... should run better here. She just might be the price value play. P Val rides Slew´s Way the daughter of Mud Route.......might get his second win of the meet.

Check the tote for more clues as I will pass this race.....


$20 place on Kiptiddy Do  (3) PAID $5.80 PLACE


           






RACE 2

A starter allowance at one mile on the turf. A weak race.....The speed just might be Babyneedsnewshoes...... come catch her on the early lead to win this race......Warren´s Assassin needed her last race......expect better......there´s alot of Warren´s in this race. Warren´s Lover s runner up to Anna You´´re Up looks to have the best current form of the group..... Whole Enchilada has run at this distance.....He beat a modest group of maidens..... a player with a shot to win this race.

Notes: This race and this field look very suspect to me.... hard to trust past performances on any of these horse.


           1.  Warren´s Lover......she looks to be the best as she has current form...... second to Anna´s Youre Up which won last week......

           

           2.  Whole Enchilada.....does like this distance which is a major issue with this group...... a ´player with a shot to win. WON


           3.  Missie Ky I You


Pick 4   2,6 with 2,4,5,7 with 2 with 2,6

Cost $8.00


PAID $186.50










RACE 3

A claiming 16 G route race for fillies and mares...... Non winners of two...... Raggin Wood exits a key maiden race....She showed speed on the turf.....ran a dull race against first level allowance company......She drops in class.....which will only help her chances. Bench Beauty should like the class drops. She has faced much better company with little showing for it. Knapp and Rosario team up on Dustin´s Magic....She drops too in class.... She finished fourth in the same race as Raggin Wood and Bench Magic...... should be well back by the public today. Derby Memo had to need her last start....She has a touch of back class.... I expect a much better performance from the rail. She is a filly who will close from off the pace.  Plazarita comes back fresh.....weight off and goes two turns.... A Player! Footnotedisclosure.....goes long in a grab bag of a race......anyone has a shot to win this race......

Notes: Non Winners of two sums up this group! Bench Beauty on paper looks tough if she can over come her slow break at the gate.....needs to break cleanly....... Short odds..... might be overbet. This drop in class is major for her as she broke her maiden running long in a state restricted maiden special weight race.  Dustin´s Magic beat Raggin Wood last race....He runs some pretty fast higher races then this race.... He should be flying late turning for home. Plazarita might go to the lead.....


TAKE NOTE....... WEAK FIELD


              1. Bench Beauty...... needs clean break.....She drops big time with this non winner of two field....... hard to like her last two races.....maybe a valid excuse is a better class of horse....and she not that good.....in this field she might be ton´s better.....or a also ran......

              2. Dustin´s Magic.....The major issue I liked is the face that Rosario rides...... he rarely rides for the ice cold trainer Knapp...... but her short career she has run some decent races.....Tab The Switch to Rosario.

              3. Raggin Wood.....She should be pressing the pace..... I picked her in her maiden win...... better then what appears on past performances.....



              Longshot Plazarita.....beware has speed and likes this distance.....can win this grab bag. WON









RACE 4

A four and half furlong Cal-Bred two year old maiden special weight race on the cushion track. Watch the tote board for more clues with the first time starters.  Awe´Some Kitten was well bet in her debut. The daughter of Awesome Gamber who is becoming a good Cal Bred sire to win early. The first time starter Gambler´s Beauty sire by Awesome Gambler looks like a runner to me. Walther Solis and Martin Pedroza team up on this live one.....check the tote for more clues. Lucky Student was beaten by Kitten by two lenghts.....she should move forward in her debut. Spring Sarah trained by the sneaky trainer Ed Freeman can fire right off the bench..... sometimes with big paying longshots........Salty Gal by In Excess gets the inside post position...... just might be a runner.

Notes:  Awe´Some Kitten looks to score second time out!


             1. Awe Some Kitten....should take this race second time out..... hope she moves forward with that race under her belt. WON

             2. Lucky Student.....had a good debut....should improve major...... she gets weight off for Eddie Truman as Eswan rides her.

             3. It´s Aine...... I like the win early pedigree.....daughter of Cozzene..... so watch out she might win....... good connections with Harrington and Victor teaming up!

             Longshot Gambler´s Beauty


$20 place on 7  Lucky Student PAID $9.00



RACE 5

Six furlong Cal-Bred optional claimer for 25 G´s on the turf. Abella switches back to the turf for trainer Blincoe.....Martin Pedroza knows her well. She finishes a close up third at this condition. She is sharp in form and both has speed and tactical speed to make her a contender. Tasty Taste looks good two races back....She warrants respect for the win...... I like the Roar pedigree and her 2012 campaign looks promising..... Sizzling Gold just might have found a home on the turf after beating both Brown Is Beige and Blue Smuriari on the turf last time out.... She looking for two straight wins. She is dropping in class to face Cal Breds.....Mike Puype sends out two......Distant Glow who has not raced in more then a year.......let´s see one first. Darling Dodie gets Gomez to ride her. She exits the race with Tasty Treat..... neck and neck down the lane....a contender her warrants respect.

Notes..... Tough race with a number of contender´s....... I landed on Abella.....I like how is ran with Miss Becca two starts back.....She better on the turf as she can get out early then chill before kicking for home.....the odds are a decent value.


More Notes:


              1. Abella.....like the way she can close from slightly off the pace.....talented on the turf.  Decent value

              2. Tasty Taste......like the pedigree but the race has speed types in the race..... so needs to relax.....early.....then kick clear.

              3. Sizzling Gold.....I liked her before everyone jumped on the band wagon.....likely the favorite if she repeats that last race she will be the one to beat. WON

              Longshot Daring Dodie....might improve big time off the Tasty Taste race....


Pick Four      2,6 with 1,5,7,8 with   (6,4) 3 with 1,6  out









RACE 6

A route 10 G claiming race for three year olds and up. Mike Mitchell drops Coluda to the bottom......He was the beaten favorite in a 25 G claiming route on May 6th.......wheeled back quickly......positive sigh is Rosario re-rides this guy after finishing dead last....have to wonder about why a re-ride. The class relief will help his chances.

The pace looks hot and contested on the front end. California Solider and Blue Steel and Coluda should press the early pace. NonSense, with Man Chester Man and Royal Import should stalk the rabbits. Low Power Gear with Wild Revenge and Maker are the stone cold closers hoping the pace will fall apart....the pace should be contested.


NOTES:

Hard to trust this race as the pace and current form can go side ways and in many different ways........ Royal Import seeks his third straight win.....the stretch battle might be hot and contested.....He does like this track....... Nonsense has a shot as He has hit the board seven straight times.....he was claimed out of the Hollendofer barn.......Man Chester Man looks good beating softer and now take a slight class hike to face this group.

             1. Royal Import.....like this track..... seeking third win... John Martin is very good and puts his horses where they can win.....
             2. Nonsense.....another sneaky trainer from Golden Gate......cheap speed..... might be hard to collar down at the wire......good odds.....

             3.  California Soldier......I like him.....like the drop in class.......three big time dropper´s.......Rosario´s horse.....Wild Revenge and this one....... I like him best of all!

              Longshot.....Man Chester Man......like the way he won fron slightly off the pace.....








RACE 7

The feature which is a optional allowance claiming race one mile and a quarter on the turf.

1. Ain......should really like the switch back to the turf where he won his maiden sprinting down the hill......A positive sign as Rosario re-rides him. He goes long and get a new surface for Gains......

2. Renegade Storm......Has a good turn of foot.....He needs to be in this race early..... do not let the speed run around the track uncontested....He looks better at one mile then this distance.

3. Jairzihno......adds the blinkers today..... a deep closer that needs a speed meltdown.....should love the distance.

4. Antidote......Sadler trains this hanger....... He should be pressing the pace in a race filled with deep closers....He shortens up in distance.

5. Falcon Rock.....scratch from Sunday´s feature race to run here.......the under-acheiver who is the class of this race.

6. Danderek.....the speed of the speed..... tells this group come catch me as I come back fresh. Tab the jockey Switch.....Do not dismiss.

7. Erbeia......hard to gauge this one.....will the real Erbeia stand up.

The pace looks soft as both Danderek and Antidote will press the pace.....this race is filled with stone cold closers....which will allow the rabbits to run free all the way around this track.......

            1. Danderek.....might be hard to collar if he gets a soft easy lead.....the one to catch....  WON

            2. Antidote.....a classic hanger but shortens up in distance.....looks like the favorite at post time....

            3. Jairzihno......if the speed melts down then he has a killer turn of foot .......to win this race......


    Longshot Falcon Rock...... has run with much better



$20 across the board on 6 Danderek










RACE 8

A route maiden claimer at the bottom ends the card. The speed looks to have Visible Marq and Broken Glass pressing the pace all around the track.....Baffert sends out the Florida bred who looks to be the controlling speed with David Flores riding. Cheezy Breezy needs a fast contested pace so he can get the win from slightly off ther pace. Both Sidepocket Kid and Tiz Victorian have a legimate shot from off the pace.

The pace looks to have alot of speed in the lineup......Cheezy Breezy should get the perfect trip if he can catch both Broken Glass and Baffert´s horse.

           1. Cheezy Breezy.......like I said there seems to be a ton of speed with Broken Glass and Visible Marq winging it to the lead....I expect Baffert´s horse to be faster......CB should get the first crack at the rabbits......He should just outrun this field by a nose..... tough stretch run.......

           2. Visible Marq...... drops again down the class ladder for Baffert who has been on fire sending out winners daily at this meet. He goes long with speed to spare......needs not to get into a pace dual with Broken Glass.


           3. Broken Glass....... speed and will be overlooked by the public.


















No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

Get This 4 Column Template Here
Get More Templates Here