Thursday, April 19, 2012
THURSDAY CLOSING WEEK AT SANTA ANITA PARK
THURSDAY ANALYSIS
BANK $100.00
RACE 1
Yes it`s spring time for baby races....two furlong sprint in this maiden 100 K claimer for two year olds. Check the tote board for more clues.....fun to watch this Cal-Bred sprint. Valley Spirit has fast pedigree sire that sends out first time winners.....He looks like a runner to me. Confederate Recon..... bullet blow out gets outside post.....good connection with babies. This colt has worked three and four furlongs.....looks ready to fire first time out. K Court gets Eswan to ride....He is bred for speed.....good trainer with first time starters out of the mare Smokester......Baffert`s wife bred El Tailsman.....great pedigree on the both sides.......looks like a runner to me.
RACE 2
A turf sprint down the hill a optional claiming race for 40 G`s.
Stormberg warrants respect. He won at this distance in February.........then finished a heartbreaker getting second last month... Talamo rides this contender. Maui Mark switches back to the turf having two wins and three seconds on the turf. He is taking a class hike ....so take note.....Bejarano rides this contender for Hess Jr. Kumiva got third behind Stormberg. A very strong race after a long lay off.... I expect much better today. Clinton needed last start....His second race....expect better here.....He is bred for the turf...... I think Janet Armstrong will have this dude ready to run a big race. Warren´s Dr. Yang has found a home on this course. He does face open company today ......he is razor sharp and loves this course.....warrants major respect with this field.
1. Warren`s Dr. Yang
2. Stormberg
3. Kumiva
Longshot Clinton
PICK FOUR 3,5 with 1,5 with 1 with 1,3
UPDATE $24.70
RACE 3
A 30 G maiden sprinting on the main track for three year olds. A weak race! Outperform showed some ability in his debut......that was five starts ago.....His last start was not that bad getting second. Talamo re-rides for Dan Hendricks. Roger Stein drops Pocket Prince from state restricted maiden special weight in for a first time tag. He never did pass a horse on the turf...... hard to gauge this one but he does have fairly good pedigree in his bloodlines. Playin The Odds looks ready to fire in this race. He has been given a short rest off two career starts....He showed speed in his debut and if he runs back to his debut he will be hard to catch with this group. He is by Awesome Gambler out of a Smart Strike mare.....should show his best today. Dutch Courage was shut off on the backstretch..... expect much better in this modest field today. Chicago Hero took up on turn.....Stra re-rides.....can improve here.
1. Playin The Odds
2. Outperform
3. Brawler
RACE 4
One mile and a eighth on the turf for non winners of two for three year olds and up. Jeff Mullin`s Clearance Clarence lost a heartbreaker at this level his last race at one mile. He should like the setup of added distance today. In a race with little speed Gothic`s Peak will tell this group come catch me if you can....He must clear fast from the outside post so he will not lose any ground on the first turn. A maiden that has a big shot here is Havacigar.....He runs like he will relish this surface and distance.... I like him! He runs better on the turf so do not just dismiss this young three year old. Quails Hill has a touch of back class....should improve with two allowance races under his belt..... the drop in class will only help......great pedigree with Candy Ride bloodlines.
1. C C
2. Gothic`s Peak
3. Quail`s Hill
Pick Three 1 with 1,3 with 2,3,4,7
UPDATE $47.40
RACE 5
A short dash at five furlong in this maiden 30 G claiming race. Cheese Danish shortens up after showing speed in her debut.... Brian Kornier is excellent with second time starters. She looks to be the controlling speed. J Louie draw a line thru her debut.....tons of trouble after breaking first from the gate. Sneaky trainer with babies.......expect her second race live! She comes back quickly......Tab the switch to Rosario on Arinyes Love....four straight thirds .....She looks to stalk the speed then if the speed meltsdown....she one of the ones turning for home. H. J Kitty`s speed number improved....She will stalk the speed...she warrants respect here as Talamo rides her. Bulletgirl switches back in distance and surfaces....She is a professional maiden that might shock this field .....this short distance might help her. Royal Lac Du a filly that has blueblood in her veins....Her debut was good. She showed speed in her second race before fading....was at six furlongs....Her last race might just want to draw a line thru it.... no valid excuses.....
1. Cheese Danish
2. Arinyes Love
3. J Louie
Longshot Royal lac Du
Pick 4 1,3 with 2,3,4,7 with 4,5,6,7 with 4,10
COST $32.00
UPDATE $1,783.25
Pick Three 1,3 with 2,3,4,7 with 4,5,6,7 Cost $32.00
UPDATE $425.80
RACE 6
A ten thousand dollar claimer at the distance of one mile. Tommy Danzigger had to need his last start after coming back from seven months off. He showed speed before fading against much faster company....This class drop will help his chances. Cutfast Ball looks to be the speed with Devils Afleet stretching out to one mile. Both have a shot as I picked Devils Afleet to win last time out. He ran into a buzz saw as Man Chester Man crushed him at the last furlong. The horse to fear turning for home looks to be Belo Purse.....who shortens up in distance and drops down two level`s..... that makes him a contender.....Rosario rides for Jack. Doug O`Neil looks to drop Titian to the lowest level after he broke his maiden....He looks very scary...... has tactical speed to get him in early position....to make his final turn of foot kicking clear.
The speed looks to have Cutfastball and Certified Diamond both stretching out should be the speed here. This might set up for a mid pack closer....
1. Tommy Danzigger
2. Titian
3. Belo Purse........Morganouska
Pick Three 2,3,4,7 with 4,5,6,7 with 4,10
UPDATE $591.10
RACE 7
The feature race is a sprint optional claimer for 62G`s N2X. The talented lineup is.....the toughest race on the card!
1. Shrug..... switches back to the dirt. Gaines is good when she goes turf to dirt....He has been knocking at the door but has not knocked it down......needs to step it up.
2. Derive..... has won six straight races...... good news the bad news ........it has been in cheap claiming races at Turf Paradise. His regular rider got a bus ticket from Arizona to ride today.... His speed figures fits with these.......
3. Saddleranch.......Baffert has been firing in all cylinders....Good pedigree..... He was bet down like the second coming last time out......He faded badly..... He does shorten up in distance.....with time off. Baffert has said ....Saddleranch is fast and a good one.....
4. Off The Wall......Bruce Headley trains this talented colt. He was on my watch list.....drop in class will help his cause. We hace not seen him in 11 months....but Headley is good with lay off types coming back..... He is a player!
5. Great Warrior..... I thought that he would climb the class ladder quickly. He might be better on this surface then the turf......We have not seen this guy in six months..... I like the morning works....At first this looks like a prep after routing in all of his races......this might not be a prep.....has tactical speed to be in the mix. A very live longshot that can win this race.
6. Horrayforhollywood......talented dude out of the Bob Baffet barn..... rallied last time out from eighth to get the lead at seven furlongs winning...... very hard thing to do coming back off the bench..... a Major player.
7. Courtside..... a modest start to his career....then stepped up and has won 5 of his career races on this track with Rosario riding all of his wins...... might just outrun this field.
1. Horrayforhollywood
2. Courtside
3. Off The Wall
Longshot Great Warrior
RACE 8
One mile on the turf for three year old fillies ends the card for 75 K claiming maidens. Dan Hendricks added blinkers then switches surfaces as Cavalletta ran to her pedigree.....She finally put it together as the light turned on..... Mike Smith re-rides. Mike Pyupe filly Sabouli......the drop for a tag will only help her....Tab the jockey switch to Talamo. Dancethewayouare gets a bad post position.....Do not dismiss her because of the lower level races she has run at. She warrants respect. Light Of Life looks like she is improving.....She exits some highly regarded maiden special weight races.... A contender who drops big time in class.....Royale Legacy has had two troubled trips.....pulling in her debut and she was steadled last time out....She does have the blueblood pedigree of Gaint`s Causeway.....she should outrun her odds from the rail....I expect that maybe Eswan will send her to the early lead. Mango Tart.....like works...she stretches out in distance....this is the distance she will run her best....do not just throw her out of the mix.
1. Dancethewayyouare......claimed for 50 G`s
2. Light Of Life
3. Sabouli
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