Thursday Analysis Santa Anita Park

                  



                    THURSDAY ANALYSIS AND PLAYS

                                   BANK $100.00


RACE 1              MAIDEN CLAIMER 20 G´S

The speed-pace scenario looks to have both Subtle Greek and Hey Iám Sobaa pressing the early pace. Hey Iám Sobaa drops from state restricted maiden special weight to face much easier company in this spot. This four year old daughter of Beanchmark might not stop..... she faster then Subtle Greek. Mike Mitchell sends out To The Top who usually improves big time second time out. She should get a good jump on the other´s turning for home. Smil´n From Above comes in fresh after running at Del Mar. She should clear from the rail. Moreover, her works are solid and very fast for this level. She exits a race where four horses have come back and won.... A key maiden race so do not dismiss her even from the rail.


               1. I´m Sobaa
               2. Smil´n From Above
               3. To The Top


$20 place and show (1)







RACE 2             ROUTE ALLOWANCE
                             THREE YEAR OLDS

Bob Baffert sends out two three year olds that look spotted for action. Sir Allison wheeled back quickly faces winners for the first time. He stretches out to two turns. He looks to set the pace in this race. Spirit Rules faced state restricted special weight....but has high improving speed figures. He is bred to route as he goes two turns for the first time. On paper, Sky Kingdom should get the perfect trip stalking slightly from off the pace. He gets the distance which is a big time plus in this race. Smart Ellis switches surfaces from Richard Mandella. I love these morning works. I expect he will outrun the odds. He should love this surface. Es Luna a horse I picked to win his maiden at double digit odds should love this distance....my longshot pick....He should be tighter this time around after finishing a respectable third last time out.


               1. Sky Kingdom...faces easier company
               2. Spirit Rules...speed in stretch out
               3. Smart Ellis....love the works

             

RACE 3           MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                              TURF DOWN-HILL

The speed looks to be Shoo Gee pressing the pace from gate to wire. This is her second start back.....beware! Gus Headley sends out Elusive Cookies who is making her second start after a layoff.....good trainer and jockey combo here. Jaredella a daughter of Tapit has both speed to wire this field or tactical speed to stalk the early pace. Sadler has Rosario riding her as she has shown that last year she has hit the board in all of her starts....looks like the one to beat if she takes to the turf. I know she likes the dirt but the main question is the surface. Short odds for a major unknown.

               1. Jaredella
               2. Shoo Gee
               3. Elusive Cookies





RACE 4         MAIDEN CLAIMER 20 G´S

A modest field of fillies and mares sprinting on the main track. The pace looks to have a number of horses contesting the early lead. Lady Antipova trained by Mike Puype returns from Santa Rosa where she press the pace before fading to third on the dirt. Youvegothatright a five year old mare returns for Lloyd Wicker. She has speed and I expect the bug boy to put her into this race early. She should outrun her odds. Sunshine High comes back fresh after a somewhat average debut. She should move forward here. Creston Cutie has a switch in jockeys to Rosario with tactical speed to put her in the mix. Johanns Kee showed speed before fading in her last time. She has a win early pedigree...do not just throw out her in the mix. A wide open weak race with few contenders and many pretenders.

           1. Lady Antipova
           2. Youvegotthatright
           3. Creston Cutie

           Pace play  Johanna Kee


$20 across the board on Lady Antipova




RACE 5        ONE MILE CLAIMING 25 G´S

A suspect weak field of restricted non winners of two for the claiming price of 25 G´s. The distance is one mile on the turf. His Boy Elroy tries a new distance and new surface for trainer Doug O´Neil. Any improvement will put him in the winners circle. Syncobeat has been knocking at the door running twice against similiar. What A Rush faces winners for the first time but I like his pedigree and racing style....beware!  Tiz A Knight trained by Julio comes in fresh off a race at Fairplex. He was the beaten favorite at this very level at the bullring. He has fire fresh before.


                      1. What A Rush
                      2. Tiz A Knight
                      3. His Boy Elroy- Syncobeat

Late Pick Four

5th   1,4,6,8
6th    3,5,6
7th  1,5,6,9
8th      3           cost $24.00





RACE 6       ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMER

A second level allowance route race on dirt. Smart Spending trained by Carla Gaines sents out a live horse stretching out after a good looking first level allowance win at seven furlongs. He has the pedigree to get the distance. He out of Smarty Jones and a half brother to Lawyer Ron.. The pace should be contested early on the front end. Thirtyfirststreet has been gelded since last start. He has a touch of back class. He should be pressing the pace from gate to wire with Bejarano riding. Megastar switches to the dirt. He has won at this very condition over at Hollywood. He should be in the mix stalking the speed. He beat Uncle Sam last time out.... He does have the speed figures and perfect off the pace running style to make him a major contender.


          1. Smart Spending
          2. Thirtyfirststreet
          3. Megastar

$20 place and show Thirtyfirststreet







RACE 7     TURF ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL

A one mile and a quarter allowance race is the feature race on Today´s card. On paper the pace- speed looks to be Admission pressing the factions early with both Antidote and Renegade Storm  trying to pass the Admission turning for home. In a very wide open race this race has the look of a upsetter. Adriatic Moon wins races.... somewhat slower and at a cheaper level. But having said this... I like how he looked last time out.... He should be stalking the pace.... then chillin and sittin waiting to strike turning for home. Antidote looms large for the win with the cozy rail position and Rosario re-riding him today. Slim Shadey making his US debut ran like a short horse needing a race. I expect better as Flores re-rides. The same thing can be said about a horse I pick to run last time out....but did not.... El Pocho has excellent pedigree.....  at 20 to 1 morning line odds.... He can flat out improve with turf pedigree.... he smoked the fields in Chile..... love the blow out... do not dismiss here.

               1. Adriatic Moon
               2. Antidote
               3. Wrongful Suit

              Longshot pedigree play El Pocho









RACE 8     SPRINT CLAIMER 10 G´S

This just might be the hardest race of the card. How many times lately have we seen Mike Mitchell to this trick....drop a horse big time in class.... Lt. Hopeful is the fastest horse in this shorten sprint race. He hires Pedroza a fast gate jockey to ride. His race to win or lose...... but not a one horse race..... Mark Of A Warrior and Charlie and Chris and Gibson Home Run have a long long look as win candiates....

               1. Lt. Hopeful

$20 place and show Lt. Hopeful