Opening Day Where the Turf Meets the Surf at Del Mar

  


Good Afternoon Racing Fans. I hope that this blog gives you some insight into the handicapping puzzle to money management to race analysis.  I will start with a Bank of $500 for Del Mar. I will daily post my bets and of course my picks.

 A footnote about handicapping the poly track. The bottom line is that it is a work in process and we as bettors have to try to jump on an angle early and ride the wave. I think we might have to look for fit horses that have some Poly track experience and hope the price is right. Good luck and Play Smart and Have fun!



Race 1           One Mile Claimer (16K)
A race that on paper is void of any real speed except one horse which is Nathaniel. Nathaniel switches from the turf to the poly track and shortens up to say "Catch me if you Can."   Joe Carl trained by Peter Miller who last year at Del Mar won 16 races the first ten days of racing. Last year Joe Carl won a 20K claimer at Del Mar so he relishes the Del Mar surface.  He was claimed last time  out so he takes the mandatory jump up in class.  He shortens up in distance and I suspect will be back by the betting public. Skellytown in April ran with the likes of Bourban Bay and Unusual Suspect. This lightly race seven year old switches back to the poly track. Mike Mitchell trains and Martin Garcia takes the call. He was claimed at 25K and now takes a drop to 16K. He has never won other then on the turf. North Fork has not race for more then a year but has been training in the morning for 4 months. He is 2 for 2 at Del Mar and has strong speed figures. The question remains with North Fork is he fit enough....... check out his last drill a bullet!  You might want to watch this one work out on the warm up to the gate before emptying your pockets.  Hunter Green trained by Art Sherman a cagey one with shippers coming from Golden Gate. Hunter Green looks like a live one in the opener. A hard knocker at this level and has hit the board 9 out of 10 races. Do not take this horse lightly.  Marquet Rebel is another hard knocker hitting the board 7 out of 8 of his last races. He was claimed by Doug O'Neil and out of jail he jumps him up in class. A positive signal by the trainer. His speed figures are lower then most in this field.....but least he shows up each and every race.  I have a hunch  that's all it is in this opener puzzler. ....... Hunter Green with  Joe Carl.


                  1. Hunter Green  2. Joe Carl 3. Skellytown
                  
                  $20 Place on North Fork 
                   ROI $28

Race 2           One Mile Sixteenth Turf Claimer (25K)
Visualizing the pace scenario has Yacht Spotter with Victory Prince battling for the lead.  Yacht Spotter second race after a short lay off and tab the jockey switch from Bisono to Bejarano. My concern is that he has not won in over two years. His main asset is that he has speed and might be sent to the lead!  Victorian Prince trained by Steve Kapp and ridden by his main man Valdez might apply pressure from the outside to clear the first turn to get good position on this field. Valiant Effect has faced some bad dudes with the likes of Spirit of Cochise and Hey Elvis. He is trained by Ron Ellis and is stretching out to two turns. He could be the speed of the speed if Victor Espinoza sends him. This is his third race after a long one year lay off.  He has never won on the turf but the caveat here is this might just be a field more to his liking. Beware! Silent Soul drops in class sports big speed numbers and at this level I expect he might be sent to the lead or he can position himself right off the lead and close down the lane. Blanc is up and he can change his style depending on what happens in this race. Silent Soul is a contender! Racketeer might be getting a little long in the tooth but when he was younger he would have crushed this field. Maybe the Del Mar atmosphere will wake him up.  Yankee Bravo has some back class he ran in the Preakness with Big Brown. On paper Bravo's wheels look like they have come off!   Carbon Hoofprint looks like he in over his head surprising the public winning a 12k claimer his last race at Hollywood. But having said this he is bred top to bottom for the turf and if there is a speed meltdown at the wire he will be one of the ones closing.

               1. Valiant Effect.2.Silent Soul 3.Carbon Hoofprint

                $20 Win Place Valiant Effect
                         ROI $100 Minus $18=$82
               Pick three
               2     2,3,6
               3rd  1,2,7
               4th   3,4   Cost of Ticket $18


Race 3           Six Half Furlong Claimer (16K)
A wide open affair at this low level claiming race with one speed horse and many dropping contenders.  Hostile Reaction will likely be the speed horse. Her last race on June 19th she wired the field at this level. She earned her highest speed number and she might be a horse that regresses. Malusita has tactical speed shortens up and can be sent to the lead or position herself right behind Hostile Reaction. JR takes the call. She was claimed by Doug O'Neil for 25k and takes a drop to 16K. Burna Detta has strong speed numbers and she was also claimed by Doug O'Neil. She switches to the main track and will likely at this level show more heart down the stretch. Steve's Afleet is a horse that is not a win machine but has run with better runners. She looks like she fires her best race when she is freshen up which is the case today! Squeeze Me Tight the betting favorite last race and was claimed out of the Ron Ellis barn by Mike Mitchell. She has been a money pit for the bettors. She looks better on turf but maybe the track surface at Del Mar will suit her style. Bejarano takes the call and Mitchell/ Bejarano have been a dangerous trainer /jockey combo at Hollywood Park. She has posted three bullet workouts in the morning. Beware! Unusual Jane by Unusual Heat is trained by a cagey trainer who can get them fit and ready to fire first time out. At Hollywood he had a horse coming off a one year lay off with double digit odds and lite up the tote board so Please do not take Unusual Jane lightly today. Sky Marini trained by A.C. with his main man taking the call is in my opinion the one to fear at the wire.  She is dangerous at this level and just cross a line in her last turf race.  She should save ground on the rail and needs a little racing luck to find a hole in traffic but will put her closing kick in down the lane. She has a bullet at six furlongs for a tightener in the morning. She looks like she relishes the Del Mar surface.

        1. Sky Marini 2. Unusual Jane 3.Squeeze Me Tight 

         $20 Win Place on Sky Marini
          ROI $96 + $82=$172
          
Race 4           One Mile Maiden (25K)

Maddyaboutyou trained by Ron Ellis shortens up to a mile. She should love the distance because she has speed and might be sent to the lead with Victor guiding her. Lisa Lulu finished  3rd in the same race with Maddy in a head bob. Lisa Lulu has a work over the Del Mar track and maybe 20 is the magic number for this veteran maiden. Ruby Lane has been freshen up for 52 days and she might have the right tactical closing kick if the speed melts down at the top of the stretch. Take note that there are two horses dropping from maiden special weight races which just might be the biggest drop in class for handicapper's to look at. Beware! A first time starter enters the picture for Bob Baffert with his main man taking the call. Uncharacteristic slow works from Baffert but Shredder is by Point Given which will like the distance and she has fast works in May and June........but her last three drills were semi slow. But remember this is the low level of maiden claimers.

      1. Lisa Lulu 2. Tiz Smoke Tiz Fire 3.Maddyaboutyou



Race 5           One Mile Sixteenth Optional Claimer 
A Race filled with speed and Derive might just be the speed of the speed.  He is stretching out to a route. Gary Stute on May 1st. put blinkers on him he has been a different colt. A caveat in that in his last four races he looks or acts like a hanger down the lane or maybe just  bad racing luck because he has posted 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Maybe the new surroundings might break this habit and taking off the Blinkers might just do the trick.  Kanan Dume has speed and won at this distance and condition his last race. Stremitely a new face in town is trained by Jerry Hoffendorler is going for the hat trick today but needs to show me he can win at this level. In The Paint trained by Mitchell and looks who's riding Bejarano and might just be the betting favorite which I just might tried to beat. Lions Story has had many chances and might be called the hard luck kid. His last race he pulled through traffic and was stopped dead on the rail. If the speed melts down  Premier Cru who is facing winners for the first time might just be fast enough to close on this field. My concern is that he does not lose to much ground going to the first turn at Del Mar.

                       1. Premier Cru  2. Derive  3. Lions Story

                Pick three
                5th 1,3,4,5
                6th 1,4,5,6
                7th  1           Cost of Ticket $18
                         ROI $172- $18- $154
Race 6           One Mile Turf O.C.A.
This field is evenly match with speed figures and is a contentious race. Zilla is  trained by  Bruce Headley. Headley has put in some long morning work outs in this gal. I expect a big performance from her today. Tab the new jockey switch to Mike Smith. She does not have Welken to deal with today and one mile is a ideal distance for her.  At Santa Anita she almost beat Sweet August Moon.  If Smith can rate her off the pace today she is the one to fear and "All System Go." Oui Say Oui is the hot horse having both speed and can rate off the pace if need be. She is not a one-dimensional speed horse. She is a contender with few pretenders in this race. Ruffled Feathers is a threat from off the pace. She exits the same race that Oui Say Oui was in with a somewhat troubled trip and ran a respectable third. Bran Jammas goes for the hat trick having won two in a row. She loves the distance of a mile and take note that she beat My Maloof Rocker twice who won last Saturday at Hollywood Park. Catsalot the waters were too deep for her in the Grade 3 Beverly Hills H. She now is back with friends!  If the speed melts down Catslot will most likely be around the wire.  Gripsholm Castle a semi head case and might do her best running at this distance. She is trained by Cecil and Tyler Baze takes the mount. Her first race from England she ran a excellent race in the La Canada Grade 2 finishing second out of 11 runners. She was the odds on favorite when she ran with Zilla and Welken but ran a dull race. Her next and last race Zilla beat her again. I have a hunch that she needed a freshening up and sports a bullet her last morning drill. Beware! If you are playing a Pick three include Bran Jammas.

                 1. Gripsholm Castle  2. Catslot  3. Zilla

Race 7           Six Furlong Maiden Special Weight
A Quality field of fillies in a contentious Maiden Special Weight Race starting the Poor Man's Pick Six aka Pick four! Roman Chic last race earned her a strong speed number. She is trained by Brian Koriner and Tyler Baze stays on. She has excellent drills.
Mama Bouche with a race under her belt posted a strong Beyer speed number. She had a troubled trip her last race and was well bet in her debut. She has posted three long works out which I always like to see. Mama Bouche trained by Bob Baffert has Martin Pedroza re-riding her this afternoon. Blessed has  been freshen up for six month. Her last race she showed more speed on the lead but gave it up down the lane.  She might need a drop for a win but she did cost 200K as a yearly.  Primed by Claiborne Farms first race was well bet and put up respectable Beyer number and finished second. She regress her next two and has been off the bench for nearly two month. Richard Mandella trains and Joe Talamo takes the call. I expect if the first time starters need a race she might give a better performance of herself today. Rote trained by Peter Miller who at Del Mar thanks to "Horse Players Magazine" he has won 16 times in the first 10 days of the meet last year!  Beware and Bejarano rides.  Rote has been side line for almost a year but has put together excellent drills for a strong performance today. She has strong  2 year old speed number. Please do not take this horse lightly. Now the first time starters in a contentious race. Vindicated Ghost by Vindication hitting with first timers at 15%. The Dam has 4 starters and 4 winners with 3 Stake Winners! I like the work out tab with a series of long five furlong and six furlong drills. David Hoffman usually sends his stable fit and cranked up and Victor takes the call. Go On Babe by Baffert/Garcia a dangerous combo. The bullets and long work outs suggest she is live first time out! Her Dam  has 4 winners from 4 starters. Enough said. Moonlight Ali by Hennessy I  will tab her for the turf. Once In A While by Bruce Headley and Mike Smith takes the call on the outside post. Lava Girl look at her gate work her last morning drill at Del Mar...... impressive at  3.f.:36 breezing at the gate. 
                                         
Late 50 cent   Pick Four 1,3,4 with 3 with 2,7,8 with 1,8,10
               1. Rote  2. Mama Bouche  3. Roman Chic

                First Time Starter Go Baby Go and Vindication Ghost

                        ROI $154-$14=$140
Race 8            One Mile Turf  Oceanside Stakes.

Oceanside Stakes at one mile turf race is restricted to 3 year old's.
Face And An Ace has speed and will save ground on the rail. Blanc is the new jockey riding and definitely a under rated turf jockey. Please do not take this horse lightly. The morning line might scare you off.  Very Fair trained by Jerry Hollendorfer should love the cut back to a mile today. Mike Smith takes the call. My concern is this will be a test for him facing this quality of horses.  Hockley beat him his last race. He only lost by a length. Hockley is a contender in this field. Twirling Candy by Candy Ride looked amazing  when he destroyed a low level entry fielded by seven and a half lengths. He is a major contender and will be backed by the public. A caveat is that this is his first time on turf and distance and really has not been rated in his races yet. But having said that good horses run on any surfaces and any distances.  He might just be that special. Brady Blue Eyes should have a good position right off the rabbits. His last sprint should have him fit and ready. Joel jumps off and goes to Candy which tells me that he thinks Candy might be better then Blue Eyes.  How many times  have you see the stablemate beat the favorite..... Domonation a stablemate to Twirling Candy tries the turf for the first time but is bred top to bottom for the turf. Please do not over look this horse at the betting windows and put him in your late pick three's. Macias since trying the turf has become a different horse in hitting the board 5 out of 5 times with 2 wins. Macias is a one dimensional speed horse and will be on the lead. It looks to me that Macias and Twirling Candy will  be battling for the early pace. The question is what horse will give it up down to the final furlong at the wire.  Killer Bear looks like  he is in too deep breaking from the outside post. Tab him later for a big run later in the meet.  Gallant Gent has back class running in the breeder's cup.  He has hooked up with lookin at lucky last year and I suspect has been somewhat of a disappointment. He had to need  his last race. I expect  we might see a new and improved Gallant Gent today in the Oceanside. In playing the Pick three and Fours a must use is Macias!

      1. Twirling Candy  2.Face And An Ace  3.Gallent Gent

       Pick three  1,3,9 with 2,7,9 with 1,8,10 
       ROI $140-$27= $113
 




Race 9            Six Half Furlong Claimer (25K)

The Pace scenario looks like Island Rum with The Whammer battling for the lead. The Whammer shortens up from seven but has a rabbit on his inside Island Rum to deal with. The Whammer has been somewhat of a money pit at the windows so take note of this. He is trained by Craig Dollase and Tyler Baze takes the call in this difficult non winners of two. Island Rum claimed out of the Harris Ranch Farms by Jack Carava was unlucky not to have won this condition his last race. Joel R. is up and is a major contender!  Total Sum had to need his last race with Island Rum in the field. He was bet down like he was the second coming of Cee Tizzy. Warring Heart jumps up in class which is a positive sign and his speed figures fit nicely at this distance. Lucky Fitz a Golden gate shipper that ran 2 respectable races at Hollywood rounds out the field. Lucky Fitz looks like he might have a say in the final furlong of this contentious race. Leavin New York seeks a level here that makes him a major contender. The waters of the Snowchief and Allowance company was not to his liking as he faded in his last two starts. He has been freshen up and his last works indicate that he might be live today. Spectacular Slew is facing winners for the first time. He does not need to be a monster facing this semi weak field. A horse you might want to play in the Tri's or Ex's (not a bet I make) but Brendasgoldennugent needed his last race. He was not too far off the lead with the winner Cadillac...at this same level on July10th. He switches to the poly track and might improve.

       1. Warring Heart   2. Island Rum 3. Leavin New York


Race10           Five Half Furlong Maiden (32K)

Grand Maneuver by  Gone West out of Phone Trick drops a level and with a race under his belt is a contender. Phone Trick babies usually fire and graduate quickly. Jerry Fanning at Del Mar is the track that he usually excels at with a limited number from his stable. Bigmikeistheman has racing experience over this field and will be a short price favorite. He drops to 32k and has tactical speed with Mike Smith taking the call.  Bigmikeistheman hung like a cheap suit in perfect stalking position to win his last race is my main concern! Unbridled Score posted a nice blow out in the morning by a trainer who works them slow Melvin Stute. In the past years at Del Mar he is a trainer has has done quite well. One race does not make a career. A Stable that sends them out live is Adam Kitchingman. A. Gryder takes the call on Tiger Tyrsts by A.P. Indy and the dam has 2 winners from 2 starters. His works seem a tad slow for this barn. Jakesam  with Tyler Baze up and  trained by Jerry Hollendorfer looks very live. I expect a respectable dance first time out. Beware!

       1. Grand Maneuver  2.Bigmikeisthemaan 3. Jakesam